The cup is coming home

15 March 2009 – And so it came to pass (albeit with probably a little kicking thrown in as well). The Cup really is coming home to New Zealand, Aotearoa, the land of the long white cloud.

When New Zealand Rugby World Cup boss Martin Snedden announced the draw and the venues for the 2011 tournament, the whole event suddenly became real for millions of spectators and players in New Zealand and around the world.

"Our philosophy all along has been a 'Stadium of Four Million [the population of New Zealand –Ed]'," said Snedden, who wants the entire country to embrace the tournament. "RNZ has worked very closely with Rugby World Cup Limited over the past few months to bring this to a reality.”

And so, those who are starting to contemplate their travel plans for 2011 will be reaching for their atlases and tracking their journeys around New Zealand. A total of 13 locations will host matches:

Auckland (including both semi-finals and the final)
Invercargill
Rotorua
North Shore
Christchurch
New Plymouth
Wellington
Whangarei
Dunedin
Hamilton
Napier
Nelson
Palmerston North

For the full draw click here:

Those 13 locations each represents a very different element of New Zealand. In coming weeks and months The Cup is Coming Home will profile each of them and its attractions. We hope the citizens of each host venue will ‘adopt’ the visiting nations – especially the smaller countries. More, much more soon.

In the meantime, let’s take a first, far-off and very preliminary outlook at what may happen in 2011.

Here are the pools:

Pool A

New Zealand, France, Tonga, Americas 1, Asia 1

Pool B

Argentina, England, Scotland, Europe 1, play-off winner

Pool C

Australia, Ireland, Italy, Europe 2, Americas 2

Pool D

South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Oceania 1, Africa 1

Now here are the quarter-final, semi-final and final line-ups:

Quarter-final 1: 8 October

Winner Pool C v Runner-up Pool D
(Wellington Regional Stadium)

Quarter-final 2: 8 October

Winner Pool B v Runner-up Pool A
(Christchurch Stadium)

Quarter-final 3: 9 October

Winner Pool D v Runner-up Pool C
(Wellington Regional Stadium)

Quarter-final 4: 9 October

Winner Pool A v Runner-up Pool B
(Christchurch Stadium)

Semi-final 1: 15 October

Winner QF1 v Winner QF2
(Eden Park, Auckland)

Semi-final 2: 16 October

Winner QF3 v Winner QF4
(Eden Park, Auckland)

Bronze final: 21 October

Loser SF1 v Loser SF2
(Eden Park, Auckland)

Final: 23 October

Winner SF1 v Winner SF2
(Eden Park, Auckland)

The Cup is Coming Home's early prediction, based partly on current form, partly on World Cup History and partly on overwhelming bias from the Publisher, goes something like this:

• Pool A: Winners: New Zealand; Runners-up: France
• Pool B: Winners: England; Runners-up: Argentina
• Pool C: Winners: Australia; Runners-up: Ireland
• Pool D: Winners: South Africa; Runners-up: Wales

Quarter finals:

1. Australia beats Wales
2. France beats England
3. South Africa beats Ireland
4. New Zealand beats Argentina

Semi-finals:

France beats Australia
New Zealand beats South Africa

Final
New Zealand beats France

Much could and will change. On current form you would not back England to beat Argentina. Similarly Ireland, despite a poor 2010 southern hemisphere tour, will fancy they can take out Australia. And France, of course, have World Cup 'previous' with New Zealand.

Only Pool D looks clear-cut. Wales are improving fast but South Africa should be too strong. Only the team's reputation as bad travellers to New Zealand (recently reinforced) makes the All Blacks favourites should they clash in one semi-final.

So, for now, 14 months out and with a loud health warning slapped on the prediction... You read it here first - The Cup is Coming Home.