The cup is coming home

Forgive him his sins: It's time to praise Graham Henry for a job well done

7 December 2008 - They lost, they came again, they conquered. Could any other rugby nation have achieved what the All Blacks did in 2008 after the events of that sombre night in Cardiff on 6 October 2007 and the subsequent exodus of players to the northern hemisphere?

The 2009 TRI-Nations series victory and subsequent northern hemisphere Grand Slam tour told us many things about New Zealand rugby. It confirmed, for example, that season in, season out, the country remains the most exciting, gifted and successful of all rugby nations.

It confirmed the resilience of the game, despite the fall-out from that disastrous night in Wales.

It confirmed the fickleness of the fan base – some of whom, we remind you, were talking pathetically about supporting the Wallabies in the light of Robbie Deans missing out on the All Blacks coaching job to the retained Henry and subsequently crossing the Tasman.

But most of all it confirmed the existence of a remarkable talent factory, one that moulded by good selection and coaching, resulted in a year that was as triumphant as it was unexpected – and therefore all the better for it.

Let’s remind ourselves of those who were missing from the 2007 squad – arguably the most talented group of players to ever emerge from the land of the long white cloud:

• Leon McDonald – missed virtually the whole season due to concussion-related problems. Would walk into most international sides and very much on a par with the outstanding Mils Muliaina.

• Doug Howlett – inexplicably dropped for the French quarter-final in the 2007 World Cup despite being in the form of his life, the former Auckland Blues winger has quickly emerged as a folk legend in his adopted Munster.

Come back for Cool Hand Luke?

• Luke McAllister – tried to win that quarter-final against the French on his own, and without the intervention of referee Wayne ‘Mr Magoo’ Barnes he just might have. Now wowing the crowds week in, week out with Sale. Of all his impressive player stats, we think only two matter right now – 1) Birthday: 28 August 1983; 2) His contract with Sale runs for just two years. Will Cool Hand Luke return to the fold in time for 2011?

• Aaron Mauger – the ‘Mr Steady’ of many an All Blacks backline, the Cantabrian found himself behind the brilliant Luke McAllister in the pecking order for the inside centre (second five-eighths) role by 2007. Now plying his fare for mighty Leicester in the UK and doing what he always did – turning in consistently good performances every week.

• Nick Evans – the back-up to Dan Carter (and in many peoples’ minds just as good a player), who almost turned the French quarter-final with a daring late break when he came on in place of the injured Carter. Arguably (because of the chronic lack of depth behind Carter) the player that the All Blacks currently miss most. He will be 31 by the time of the 2011 World Cup, hardly too old for a number 10, especially given his consistently superb performances for London club Harlequins through late 2008 and early 2009.

• Byron Kelleher – the feisty scrum-half who could just have been one of the game’s greats were it not for his appalling World Cup record (started ahead of Justin Marshall in the 1999 semi-final defeat to the French; came on for the injured Marshall in the 2003 semis loss to Australia; started in the 2007 quarter-final disaster). Playing consistently well for Toulouse this year, but at 32 in December it’s hard to see him making the cut in 2011 even if he made himself available.

• Brendon Leonard – the Waikato second-string (behind Kelleher) number 9 stormed onto the international scene in 2007 and looked set for a long and thriving future, possibly as first-choice scrum-half. But injury did for him this year just when the All Blacks really needed him. He will be back.

• Jerry Collins – one of the great New Zealand blind-side flankers, a hard man who gave everything and then some more to the All Blacks cause. At just 28 years of age he has given up the international game to play for struggling Toulon in the French championship. He won’t even have turned 31 when the 2011 World Cup final is played at Eden Park, Auckland. Hmmm...

• Chris Jack – another All Blacks great, the 2.02m man mountain from Christchurch was the lynchpin of the forwards effort from 2001 until 2007. Now playing (subject to regular injury) for Saracens in England. Will have just turned 33 when the 2011 World Cup begins.

• Keith Robinson - The injury-prone lock retired after the World Cup, citing the effects of an ongoing knee injury. A surprise and certainly unwise choice in the All Blacks starting 15 that lost in Cardiff.

• Carl Hayman – arguably the greatest loss of all from the class of 2007 and still the top tighthead prop in world rugby. Big Carl decamped to Newcastle in the cold north-west of England after the World Cup. But it’s worth noting two things – firstly he is only 29 (just turned) and secondly his Newcastle contract runs only until 2010. We’re tempted to say ‘Go figure’ but we think Graham Henry already has.

• Anton Oliver – a great servant since 1997 to the All Blacks as first or second-choice hooker and a major contributor to the forwards power that re-emerged as a characteristic of the national game in recent years. Now studying at Oxford University.

Kieran Read: Composed and decisive

So there you have it, no fewer than 12 defections or long-time injuries. From that list at least 10 would still be selected in most front-line international squads. And remember, seven of those named above were in the starting line-up at Cardiff.

Seven. Virtually half a team selected as the best the world’s top rugby-playing nation could offer. What other country could come back so well and so quickly from such an exodus?

It wasn’t plain sailing. Number 9 proved a major headache with heir apparent Leonard out of action and the next in line, Cantabrian Andrew Ellis, looking anything but to the manor born. The other contenders, Jimmy Cowan and Peri Weepu, both had well-documented discipline problems yet both came through the TRI-Nations and Grand Slam with enhanced reputations. And young Alby Mathewson looked very good indeed when he came on at a critical stage of the Munster match, which the All Blacks won at the death.

But does any of that quartet have that added something that, say, a Justin Marshall or Sid Going brought to the party? Not just skills but also leadership and pugnacity? Our best hopes may ultimately lie in Leonard and Mathewson.

And there are chronic gaps at 10 and 7. Stephen Donald is a fine provincial player. He had a decentish game against Scotland but was poor against Australia (in Hong Kong) and very poor against Munster. We cannot go on (and certainly not into the next World Cup) without a class back-up at 10. Canterbury’s Stephen Brett oozes that class but will have to work on his defence. That will come and so must Brett’s hour.

Finding a replacement for Richie McCaw is a bigger challenge altogether. Imagine this scenario – the All Blacks are leading comfortably into the last minutes of the World Cup semi-final at Eden Park in 2011. Suddenly a maul collapses and Richie’s face is contorted in agony. As he is helped from the field, it is clear from his anguished expression that he is out of the final next week...

And who would take his place? The All Blacks tried Craig Thompson there against Scotland, and Scott Waldrom against Munster. Both were good, solid All Blacks but are light years away in terms of pace, skill, intuition and sheer nous from the magnificent McCaw. While praying that nothing will happen to their talisman, Henry and Co have to spend the next few years planning for exactly that eventuality.

But in terms of depth, the 2008 season threw out plenty of pluses. Man of the season Ma’a Nonu increasingly looks the goods at inside centre – though we’d still prefer him as an impact player replacement of McAllister in the last 20 minutes. And at outside centre a cupboard that was for so long barren (remember Cullen there in the 1999 debacle; and Muliaina having to play there in both 2003 and 2007?) is now overflowing – with Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui and Isaia Toeava all looking the genuine articles. They will be 30, 26 and 25, respectively, by the time of the 2011 World Cup.

At hooker (Hore, Mealamu, Flynn, Elliot) and prop (especially if Hayman returns), the stocks are reasonably well-plenished and in the second row Ali Williams will only be 30 come 2011. Anthony Boric will be 28 and Jason Eaton 29 but hard man Brad Thorn will have tipped 36 – realistically too old for a World Cup, other than perhaps as a substitute. Could Chris Jack return?

Liam Messam: the next big thing?

Aside from the McCaw dilemma, the back-row looks strong. Jerome Kaino is the business, certainly as a defender, and his attacking game will blossom with experience. Kieran Read stepped up to the international game seamlessly, looking both composed and decisive in everything he did on the northern tour, effectively leapfrogging Thompson in the rankings.

Liam Messam didn’t get much game time during the Grand Slam tour but anyone who witnessed his second-half performance against Munster will know this young man has an incredible will to win allied to his undoubted ball skills and innate leadership ability. Expect him to play a big role come 2011. Ditto for Rodney So'oialo, who will turn 32 during the next World Cup and who is fast turning into an All Blacks great.

A talent factory indeed. But let’s not forget the men at the helm who helped shape what initially looked as a dangerously lightweight squad into world beaters – Wayne Smith, Steve Hansen and the murderously maligned Graham Henry.

There is no question that Henry got it wrong with the extent (not the principle) of his rotation policy last year. There is no question that the All Blacks were underdone by the time of that fateful quarter-final. There is no question that some of the selections (an injured Carter, a dodgy Robinson) were wrong. But was axing him for the first major failure in his otherwise hugely successful tenure the right move?

The jury will long remain out on that one, but once the decision was made, Henry deserved more than the disgraceful abuse he got from many elements of New Zealand’s rugby and wider communities.

He – and his talent factory – have lived to fight another day. In itself that counts as one of the great All Blacks stories.

A POSSIBLE ALL BLACKS STARTING LINE-UP FOR THE WORLD CUP FINAL 2011

Full-back: Mils Muliaina (then aged 31)
Winger: Joe Rokocoko: (28)
Winger: Sitiveni Sivivatu (29)
Outside Centre: Richard Kahui (26)
Inside Centre: Luke McAllister (28)
Stand-off half: Dan Carter (29)
Scrum-half: Brendon Leonard (26)
Number 8: Liam Messam (27)
Open-side flanker: Richie McCaw (30) – Captain
Blind-side flanker: Kieran Read (25)
Second-row: Ali Williams (30)
Second-row: Anthony Boric (27)
Loose-head prop: Tony Woodcock (30)
Tight-head prop: Carl Hayman (31))
Hooker: Andrew Hore (33)